Economic optimism rises in Britain but Rishi Sunak’s Tories not getting credit for it – new poll

According to a recent poll by Ipsos, economic optimism is on the rise in Britain. However, the Conservative party, led by Rishi Sunak, is not receiving credit for this positive sentiment. The survey showed that 33% of adults expect the country’s economic conditions to improve in the next year, while 37% expect them to worsen. Another 25% believe that conditions will remain the same. This gives an Economic Optimism Index of -4 for May. Despite the growing optimism, it seems that the Tories have yet to be recognized for their role in the country’s economic recovery.
The latest figures show a significant improvement compared to April. In April, only 21 percent of people believed there would be an economic improvement, while 52 percent expected a deterioration. Another 21 percent believed the situation would stay the same, resulting in an Economic Outlook Index (EOI) of -31.
The latest findings indicate that the Conservative Party experienced a significant defeat in the May 2 elections. However, more recent data from the Office for National Statistics shows that the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6% in the first quarter of this year, signaling a recovery from the slight recession at the end of last year.

Additionally, average wages have continued to rise in real terms for the tenth consecutive month. However, unemployment has slightly increased to 4.3% in the first quarter of 2024.
The latest voting intentions in Westminster show that the Conservative Party is at a near record low of 20 percent, an increase of one point from April. Despite this, Labour remains ahead with 41 percent, although they have seen a decrease of three points. The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are both at 11 percent, with an increase of two points each. However, Reform UK has seen a decrease of four points and is now at nine percent.
Just 17% of the public are satisfied with Rishi Sunak’s performance as Prime Minister, a slight increase of one point. However, the majority of people, 72%, remain dissatisfied, although this is a decrease of three points compared to previous polls. Sunak’s net rating stands at -55, which is slightly higher than his previous record low of -59 last month.

Furthermore, a significant majority of Britons, 73%, believe that it is time for a change at the next general election. This percentage has increased from 69% in January and represents the highest level in over a year.
According to recent polls, two thirds of the country (66 percent) do not believe that the Conservative government should be re-elected. Additionally, 68 percent of the population does not consider the current government to be “competent,” which marks an increase of four points since January.

Furthermore, the survey found that 81 percent of adults are dissatisfied with the government’s performance in running the country, which is a decrease of three points since April. On the other hand, 12 percent of the population expressed satisfaction, which is an increase of two points.
A recent survey shows that only 31% of Conservative supporters are satisfied with the current situation, while 58% are dissatisfied. The data also reveals a split among Tory backers regarding their satisfaction with Chancellor Rishi Sunak, with 48% expressing satisfaction, a decrease of three points, and 42% expressing dissatisfaction, an increase of five points.
The latest data shows a rise in economic optimism, which could potentially support the Conservative party’s claim that the British economy is on the path to recovery. However, experts warn that there are still warning signs that cannot be overlooked.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, suggests that while the Conservatives may find encouragement in the improved economic sentiment, it may not be enough to guarantee their success. Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, may view this rise in optimism as a crucial factor in boosting the party’s prospects, but it is important to consider other factors that could impact their fortunes.

In summary, although there are positive signs of economic optimism, it remains to be seen if this alone will be enough to secure the Conservatives’ political future.
Sir Keir Starmer’s satisfaction rating has seen a notable improvement, with 32% of all adults expressing satisfaction, an increase of 7 percentage points. In contrast, 50% of adults are dissatisfied, a decrease of 6 percentage points. This results in a net score of -18, a significant improvement from the -31 score recorded in April.

This positive trend is also observed among Labour party supporters, with 60% expressing satisfaction, a rise of 9 percentage points. Dissatisfaction among party supporters has decreased to 28%, down by 10 percentage points. As a result, Sir Keir Starmer’s net satisfaction rating among Labour party supporters stands at +32, a significant improvement from the +13 score recorded in April.
The latest poll shows that 22% of adults are satisfied with the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey. This is an increase of four points from the previous poll. On the other hand, 38% of adults are dissatisfied with Davey’s leadership, which is a decrease of two points. Overall, Davey’s net score has improved to -16, compared to -22 last month.
A recent survey has shown that optimism about the economy is on the rise among various groups. However, there are still some differences in sentiment among different demographics.

According to the survey, men are more optimistic than women, with 38% of men expressing confidence in the economy compared to 29% of women. Older individuals, aged 55 and above, are also more positive about the economy, with 40% expressing optimism, compared to only 27% of those aged 18-34.

Furthermore, the survey found that homeowner optimism outweighs that of renters, with 37% of homeowners feeling positive about the economy compared to 25% of renters.

These findings indicate that while overall optimism is increasing, there are still variations in sentiment across different groups.